One of Japan's richest and most prestigious races is tonight, as the Japan Cup will be contested at Tokyo Racecourse over 2,400 meters. Seventeen horses will contest this year's edition, after 2023 Kikuka Sho winner Durezza was scratched.
This year's favorite is Masquerade Ball, coming off of an autumn Tenno Sho win that gave him the honors of being just the sixth three-year-old to win the race. He's drawn the 15th post for this race, which is unlucky because of the race's slight favor towards inside posts. Christophe Lemaire returns as his jockey, who would likely cement himself as this year's top jockey by earnings with a win. It would be Lemaire's 9th time in the past 10 years with the distinction.
Masquerade Ball will face off against familiar rival and this year's Derby winner Croix du Nord, coming off a disappointing 14th-place finish at the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Yuichi Kitamura returns as jockey, having won the Kyoto Nisai Stakes with longshot Justin Vista the day before. Croix du Nord hasn't raced in Japan in five months, but I doubt he'll be rusty. At post 2, he'll be in good position to take advantage of the short straight before the first corner. He's finished ahead of Masquerade Ball three times before, but with an even stronger lineup today, can he do so again?
Last year's Derby winner Danon Decile makes his first Japan Cup appearance today, and just his second start of the year in Japan after winning the American Jockey Club Cup in January. His April excursion to the UAE was a tremendous success as he captured the Dubai Sheema Classic, but a second foreign trip to the UK ended in failure as he finished 5th out of 6 in the International Stakes. Keita Tosaki has been his jockey this year, replacing Norihiro Yokoyama. Having won the Queen Elizabeth II Cup with Regaleira just two weeks ago, can Tosaki lead Danon Decile to another victory at Tokyo?
European Horse of the Year Calandagan is the sole foreign challenger this year, looking to become the first foreign horse to win the Japan Cup since the time of writing, Calandagan's odds are 6.8, having been at 8.0 entering the weekend and above 10.0 a week ago. I have to wonder why a horse on a streak of three G1 wins in a row, with four G1 runner-ups before that, has found himself as the fourth-favorite of the race.
Justin Palace hasn't tasted victory since the 2023 spring Tenno Sho, but has been a consistent contender by finishing at least 6th in each of his past 7 starts. Cristian Demuro will also be Justin Palace's 5th jockey in his last 6 starts, but Demuro was in charge for last year's Japan Cup when Justin Palace came 5th. His recent loss to Masquerade Ball may be fresh on his fans' mind, but his connections still hold faith that he'll be able to claim his first victory at Tokyo.
My pick: I expect Calandagan to break the drought of foreign wins. Even though each of Japan's main contenders are proven winners at Tokyo's 2400m course, I don't think the home-field advantage will have as much of an impact as many others do. The Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud should have prepared Calandagan for every one of the challenges Tokyo Racecourse will give him.
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