This year's Champions Cup is tonight over 1800m on dirt at Chukyo Racecourse. It will be good and sunny tonight, so each horse should be able to give their best.
Narukami is tonight's heavy favorite, on a four-race winning streak after a dominant three-length win in the Japan Dirt Classic. He's raced at Chukyo's 1800m dirt course before, but came a surprise 7th in that allowance race in January. After switching jockeys to Keita Tosaki, Narukami has been undefeated, and would secure his status as the best three-year-old on dirt with a win tonight.
W Heart Bond has also only lost once in her career, to Riot Grrrl in August's Breeders' Gold Cup. She rebounded last month to become a graded stakes winner in the Miyako Stakes over Ramjet and Outrange, but tonight will be by far her toughest test yet. She'll be running from the second gate tonight, and her odds may depend on whether or not her jockey Ryusei Sakai can prevent Narukami from taking the inside.
In both 2023 and 2024, Wilson Tesoro finished second to Lemon Pop, and last year it was by only a nose. There's no more proven horse in the field today at Chukyo Racecourse, but it remains to be seen whether that experience will help him against his younger competition. In October he captured the Mile Championship Nambu Hai over a few others he'll race against tonight, including Sixpence, Peptide Nile, and Sunrise Zipangu. Wilson Tesoro has shown great acceleration down the stretch here before, which could make him well-suited to catching Narukami.
Fans may know Sixpence better as the winner of three 1800m G2 races (the Fuji TV Sho, Mainichi Okan, and Nakayama Kinen), but he had a successful dirt debut in the Mile Championship Nambu Hai last month. Tonight's field is stronger than his debut's, but Sixpence definitely has the potential to overcome expectations once again. Even though Lemaire lost in the Japan Cup with Masquerade Ball, he's clearly still in top form, and should be able to bring out the best in Sixpence.
Luxor Cafe may have been defeated by Narukami and Natural Rise in the Japan Dirt Classic two months ago, but he proved his own skill in the Musashino Stakes on November 15th, winning by three and a half lengths. His jockey is the newly-arrived Frenchman Florent Geroux, who is making his debut in Japan tonight on a short-term license. He won the Dubai World Cup with Hit Show earlier this year, and has also won the 2017 Kentucky Derby and 2021 Breeders' Cup Classic. For the second race in a row he's drawn the outermost gate, but it is unlikely to be an issue for him.
My pick: Narukami. Despite the different distance and track, I think a Japan Dirt Classic from a month ago will repeat itself. Though Luxor Cafe's Musashino Stakes win was very impressive, I don't think it proved enough for him to close what was a 12-length gap against Narukami in the Japan Dirt Classic. I expect Narukami to take the lead early and never look back despite good challenges from W Heart Bond and Luxor Cafe.
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